As a new season of NFL football draws near, one of my favorite hobbies becomes a major focus in my life: Fantasy Football

While there is skill involved, there’s also a lot of luck in fantasy football. People who auto-draft their teams and barely touch them can end up getting into the playoffs because things went just right. On the other hand, people can make good decisions but ultimately have players get hurt or draw the worst possible match-up in a key week. Good luck and bad luck, what can you do?

The quote “luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity” is attributed to Roman philosopher Seneca. While we can’t always control the bad things which befall us, and sometimes we stumble into a good thing, strong preparation can help us identify and capitalize on opportunities when they arise.

Before the season begins, players must be acquired, and I still enjoy the draft method. One of my favorite parts of it is the preparation. Every season I put together statistics in an Excel spreadsheet (Google Sheets is fine and free as well) and create/modify formulas to help predict values and trends. Gut instincts in fantasy football can be fun, but hard numbers sure help!

There are two components to a draft; knowing when to draft a certain position and knowing who to take at that position.

The number of starters at each position, the overall size of the roster, this can have a major impact on strategy in determining which positions have a surplus or shortage of available players. A team can put a lower priority on drafting from a particular position group in early rounds when it has a surplus of players at a particular value and instead target positions which have a shortage of quality players. Failing to draft players at that position early could become a liability for the team all season unless someone unexpected can be found in waivers or free agency, which happens every year. It is said that a season can be lost based on a draft, but it is won through waivers. My goal is always to ensure I have a fighting chance through the draft.

Drafts are about maximizing value with each pick. Value constantly changes based on which positions and players the other teams select throughout the draft. If in the first round several teams draft running backs (RB) then it might make more sense to draft a wide receiver (WR) since the RB group has now lost value while the WR group’s value remains. While you might be targeting a RB during the first round, due to the actions of other teams the value has changed and maximizing your pick can mean getting value from a different position. This might also not be the case if a RB unexpectedly is available despite being ranked ahead of the others which have already been taken. There are many variables, the winning strategy adapts to those variables.

How do we determine value during various points of the draft though? The question to ask for that answer is, what is the estimated drop-off in production between the top, middle, and lower players at each position? These are considered tiers, and while players can be sorted into three tiers, it’s more realistic to sort them into 6 to 10 tiers depending on the position. For a particularly large league or roster there can be even more tiers. Before you can determine tiers, you need data to help you see where each group of players begins to decline in production.

While it is possible to determine this based on point projections, I prefer real data instead of guesses, so I use fantasy points scored from previous years. This information can be found on your fantasy football platform by looking at the players and last season’s points totals. It’s a bonus if your league keeps the same scoring format year to year and you retain this information so you can look at year over year trends. This data should be reinforced with current season projections, which ultimately requires experience and above average knowledge or total reliance on rankings by professionals.

In 2022 Josh Jacobs was the highest scoring RB and averaged 24.4 points per game (PPG), while David Montgomery averaged 13.2 and ranked 30th in scoring. That is a difference of 11.2 PPG worth 190.4 points over the course of a 17-game season. Of course, you won’t compare the RB1 to RB30, but from here you can begin to see the drop-offs in production for the players between these two and understand how many points you’ll be potentially giving up the longer you wait to take players from this position. Do note that when looking at average PPG, it must be taken into consideration that this number can be inflated when a player doesn’t play in all 17 games.

Below is an example of how many points various RBs finished with on an average PPG basis in 2022. These averages may look different than the ones in your league due to scoring settings differences, however the premise is the same.

#1 – Josh Jacobs: 24.4
#3 – Austin Ekeler: 23.7
#4 – Derrick Henry: 22.7
#5 – Nick Chubb: 21
#6 – Saquon Barkley: 20.7
#7 – Tony Pollard: 18.7
#10 – Jamaal Williams: 16.9
#15 – Isiah Pacheco: 15.8
#20 – Devin Singletary: 13.7
#30 – David Montgomery: 13.2

While it’s always better to look at the full list of players to get a better scope, it’s easy to see here that after the first two or three RBs are taken, the level of production drops off by 3.4 PPG. This means that the first three can be considered Tier 1. The next three have similar production rates and can be grouped together as Tier 2. A third tier will have 3 or 4 RBs. Tiers are also influenced by player rankings for the current year, but historical data helps anchor the information.

These tiers can be subjective, but they’re used to identify when production begins to drop off by a significant amount. Tiers can include between 1 and 6 players, even more as you get deeper into a position. This is true of any position. Certain positions will have quicker drop-offs and a great example is the tight end (TE) and quarterback (QB) group.

Travis Kelce puts up typical WR numbers each season and no other TE comes close, placing him in Tier 1 for the TE group and making him the only one in that tier with the next closest TE producing about 5 fewer PPG. This is why it’s not unusual for him to be taken in the first round. Others at TE typically produce far less and have a smaller drop-off in production, which pushes the value of this position much lower than other groups, meaning it is typically drafted in later rounds outside of a few top players.

During a match-up another team might have a better RB, but if your RB can get within 4-7 points of their RB, and you have Kelce who outscores their TE by 5-8 points, then you generated more value by taking your TE in the first round while getting your RB in the second round. While this is a very simplified example which provides a basic understanding, the equation is far more complex since rosters are composed of more than just RBs and TEs. The point is to maximize value across positions and string together enough overall points to win each week; this can be achieved through many different roster combinations.

During your draft keep a piece of paper handy. Write down how many players are in each position tier and put a mark next to each position as it is drafted. This will generally tell you how many players overall are left at each tier, which in turn helps inform when you should draft from a particular position based on how many players are available at a given tier.

Let’s say you have ranked and tiered all your position groups as the example below. The numbers are loosely made up for this example, using historical data from the previous season and projections for the current season. This will always be subjective.

QB

Tier 1 – 3 players available averaging 24 PPG
Tier 2 – 1 averaging 21
Tier 3 – 4 averaging 17
Tier 4 – 5 averaging 16
Tier 5 – 4 averaging 14
Tier 6 – 3 averaging 13

RB

Tier 1 – 3 averaging 20
Tier 2 – 4 averaging 17
Tier 3 – 3 averaging 16
Tier 4 – 6 averaging 14.5
Tier 5 – 6 averaging 13
Tier 6 – 5 averaging 12
Tier 7 – 4 averaging 10
Tier 8 – 7 averaging 9

WR

Tier 1 – 2 averaging 20
Tier 2 – 3 averaging 17.5
Tier 3 – 4 averaging 16
Tier 4 – 4 averaging 14.5
Tier 5 – 7 averaging 13
Tier 6 – 7 averaging 12
Tier 7 – 6 averaging 10
Tier 8 – 10 averaging 9

TE

Tier 1 – 1 averaging 17
Tier 2 – 2 averaging 12
Tier 3 – 1 averaging 11
Tier 4 – 1 averaging 10
Tier 5 – 3 averaging 9
Tier 6 – 3 averaging 8
Tier 7 – 5 averaging 7.5
Tier 8 – 4 averaging 7

Looking at these tiers we can immediately observe that the TE position has the fewest players at each tier and drops off the quickest. The WR group is the deepest, however you need to hold more WRs on your roster than any other position. All groups have about an 11-point drop-off from top to bottom. QBs lose value the quickest, meaning that once this position begins to be drafted you either need to get in quickly or likely avoid it for a while in favor of continuing to build value at other positions.

Let’s say the starting positions for a roster are 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, with 7 bench players in a 10-team league.

You’re drafting 7th and the first 6 picks consist of 3 RB and 3 WR. That means all of Tier 1 RB and WR are taken. This leaves you with the decision of taking a Tier 1 TE which projects to average 5 more PPG than anyone from Tier 2 TE and about the same PPG as the Tier 2 RB and WR groups, drafting one of the top Tier 2 RB or WR which provides an additional 1 PPG over the next tier, or a Tier 1 QB which provides 3 additional PPG over Tier 2. However, there is only one Tier 2 QB and the drop between Tier 1 and Tier 3 QB is 7 PPG.

Unless some amazing RB or WR is somehow still available to you, the numbers point towards maximizing value by taking a TE at 7th overall due to scarcity and production. (Update: There’s also always the possibility the aging star at this position finally begins to decline or is injured before the season begins). Depending on how the next several picks go, the likely position you pick next at 14th is going to be either a RB or WR due to necessarily needing more players from these positions to fill your roster and the fact that they will get to scarcity faster than other positions.

However, if you are confident that you can make middle and lower end players with great potential work as your starters at RB and WR, you could instead take advantage of the availability of top tier QBs and potentially induce other teams to take a QB sooner than planned. This can provide you with more options at positions you haven’t yet drafted for by forcing other teams to focus their attention elsewhere. This formula is followed throughout the draft to maximize value with each pick and balance each one by focusing on scarcity.

Keep in mind, fantasy football can be a zero-sum game where not only can you strengthen your own roster, but also simultaneously weaken your opponents by depriving them of players at positions which are experiencing scarcity. Take value players when you don’t need them if the position you need doesn’t have the right player at the right value available; these players can be used as leverage in future trades to help shore up your roster. Just make sure that the player has substantial value and can actually be of use to your team if the trade doesn’t materialize.

Sometimes, you can even see the future. Many people will simply use the pre-draft rankings on a given platform and often will draft the next highest available ranked player, especially in the earlier rounds. Use that to your advantage to continue adding value to your team while denying value to others.

Always account for the roster makeup of your league. A 2 QB and/or TE league will place value in places it wouldn’t in a 1 QB/TE league, the same goes for having one or more superflex positions.

What about the other component of a successful draft, player rankings?

Ask yourself, how much time and desire do you have to commit to further research? Putting together this draft data and analyzing it can take a lot of time. Do what is fun for you and whatever makes you enjoy fantasy football and want to come back next season. Strong preparation can lead to a lot more wins though, and I find winning to be very fun!

First and foremost, you can always take advantage of rankings by the pros, who generally do a solid job. If you want to go further, this data can be used as a base for building your own rankings, going so far as devising formulas to average out these rankings and then infusing your own valuations based on league settings and team situations such as strength of schedule, role, and supporting cast. An easy schedule can elevate a mediocre player. Playing in a lot of domes can be a boon to kickers. Of course, kickers can’t make field goals if their team either can’t get within range or is constantly playing from far behind, but an opponent with a weak defense might change their value for a week.

While I won’t go into detail here about making your own rankings, one simple piece of advice I can give you is that fantasy football boils down to performing consistently week to week. Drafting and starting your studs is essential, but you’ll never have a team completely full of them in a typical situation.

Looking for a lottery ticket can pay dividends, however finding decent players who don’t necessarily put up big numbers every week, but consistently put up decent numbers while rarely busting will go a long ways towards getting you enough wins to get into the playoffs. The player which consistently puts up 8-10 points every week is generally better than one who puts up 6 one week and 12 the next.

One final piece of advice, draft a player who you like to watch. It increases the fun of fantasy football.

Value has many appearances and conditions. Keep applying this throughout the season and you might just hoist a trophy at the end!